Iran may be odd man out in Iraq after election and Trump's rebuke of Obama deal leaves it in precarious position

Guardian:
The unexpectedly poor showing of Haider al-Abadi, Iraq’s prime minister, in parliamentary elections has dealt a blow to US influence in the country. It was a poor return for American backing for the Baghdad government’s drive to extirpate Islamic State and regain lost territory.

But the bigger loser may be Iran, whose allies in Iraq’s Shia militias known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces were pushed into second place by Moqtada al-Sadr, the veteran nationalist. Put simply, Sadr believes Iraqis should run Iraqi affairs – not Washington, not Tehran and not their proxies.

The pressing question now, for Iraqis and the wider Arab world, is whether the election marks the high watermark of Iranian influence that has grown steadily across the region since the 2003 US invasion. Recent events have blown large holes in the prevailing narrative of an inexorable Iranian advance. In short, have we reached “peak Iran”?

Evidence the tide may be turning emerged last week after Donald Trump, in effect, tore up the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sweeping sanctions.

Tehran’s fractured leadership seemed caught off-guard by the full force of the US president’s denunciation. It has failed so far to articulate a clear response.

Although European signatories will this week tell Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, they are determined to uphold the pact, this seems an empty promise. Faced with swingeing US treasury sanctions, private companies doing business in Iran will mostly walk away. There is little France, Germany or the EU can do to stop them.

By its relative silence, the UK – caught as ever between Washington and Europe – is already acknowledging this reality. Nor can Iran rely on Russia or China, also signatories to the deal, to bail it out. To fund its inefficient state-dominated economy, its ongoing interventions in Syria and Yemen and, for example, its ballistic missile programme, Iran needs the billions of dollars accruing from oil exports. This cash flow is in serious jeopardy.

Iran had a significant setback in another regional theatre last week, blundering into an Israeli trap. It began with a minor attack last Tuesday on Iranian military facilities at Kisweh, south of Damascus – the latest of several Israeli hit-and-run raids to which Iran had not until then responded. It proved the last straw.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards commanders opened fire on Israeli positions in the occupied Golan Heights. That gave Israel a looked-for pretext to launch a pre-planned assault on Iranian facilities all across Syria. It was a classic sucker punch. Iran’s troublesome military buildup appears to have been halted, at least for now.
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Israel also appears to have outmaneuvered Iran in its relations with Russia too.  It should also be noted that Iran's currency and markets are in a nose dive.  It will be interesting to see if Iran reveals the names of companies and people it bribed to do business with it after the sanctions were removed.  That would also be a move that would play in the hands of the US.

The Guardian is not a supporter of the Trump administration.  So this analysis is somewhat surprising.

Comments

  1. Al Sadr is a ruthless bastard, but a realist, is next in line to replace Al Sistani as the Grand Ayatollah. The Iranian protected him, in Iran during the Iraq war. He is bad News for both the US and Iran.

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